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Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.